The cost of the war is being counted not in the corridors of power in Washington or Tehran, but in Firozabad's darkened furnace rooms, Howrah's idle casting sheds, and a barbershop in Kochi where the wait is suddenly, inexplicably, an hour long, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
Will rising tensions between US-Israel and Iran threaten crude oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, putting India's fuel prices, imports, and economic stability at risk?
In a further escalation of the assault on the heavily fortified site, a missile strike also reportedly targeted the "helipad" at the embassy, as documented by Al Jazeera.
Trump has made it clear: the US will not lift its blockade of Iranian ports until a deal is signed.
India-based Iranian actresses Mandana Karimi and Elnaz Norouzi share their deep concerns and anxieties about the escalating crisis in Iran, and reveal the personal toll on their lives and the Iranian diaspora.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
Israel wishes to continue its bombing campaign until Iran's military and industrial infrastructure are degraded to a point where it ceases to pose a threat to Israel. Iran, for its part, has learnt from its experience in the 12-day war of last June. Any ceasefire, it believes, will only be a prelude to another attack on itself. It is determined to convey that any attack on Iran will impose heavy costs on Israel, the US, America's allies in the Gulf -- and on the world at large, points out T T Ram Mohan.
'Oil is still well below its all-time highs, and the world is gradually running out of known reserves.'
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
Talmiz Ahmad is a former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. In an interview with Aditi Phadnis, he says the disequilibrium in Iraq will continue to prevail. Ahmad also says there are indications that the US is now anxious to avoid intervening militarily in West Asia, and that this is the appropriate moment for Asia to assume responsibility for its own security. Edited excerpts:
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles and drones at Israel on Saturday, June 14, 2025, causing widespread damage in communities in north Israel, killing three people and injuring dozens.
When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'IT companies do not have a large presence there either in terms of market and team. So, the impact of the war will be minimal. But West Asia is an emerging economy.'
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Although extensive air attacks have been carried out to destroy most of Iran's defence capabilities, the latter's resilience and sustenance during the war clearly indicate that the US landing force would encounter severe resistance in the operation, explains Commodore Venugopal Vengalil (retd).
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
'Without ground troops the US will not be able to oust the Iranian Islamic regime. Political change does not happen just by using bombs or planes.'
'With the US having entered the war, raising the risks of a wider conflict, those impacts could be even more damaging.'
As the Iran-Israel conflict takes dangerous dimensions, support for Tehran comes from next door as Iraqi Shi'ite Muslims protest Jerusalem's attacks in Baghdad.
A year after a Hamas attack against Israel on October 7 and the ensuing Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, India's trade with most West Asian countries has largely escaped any major disruption, except with countries like Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan. However, repeated flare-ups of geopolitical tensions in the region continue to drive up shipping and logistics costs.
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities have once again raised concerns that Tehran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical chokepoints, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has called on Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) to defend the multilateral trading system amid increasing protectionism and tariff volatility during a meeting of the bloc's foreign ministers in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly session.
'Trump would like the war in Ukraine to be over, and that it would be weighing on his mind even before the Inauguration ceremony in January next year.'
The Kananaskis gathering on June 16-17 is the Prime Minister's 6th consecutive participation in the G7 Summit.
'The condition was getting worse here every minute'
Trump couldn't care less anymore about the Israeli demand for Iran's 'de-nuclearisation' and 'de-militarisation.' Trump pins hopes on a grand bargain with Iran as a partner in America First, argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Brent crude oil prices can touch $150 a barrel (bbl) - up a whopping 103 per cent from the current levels - in the worst-case scenario if the Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions escalate, suggest analysts.
At the end of the day, for many worldwide, the ongoing mutual attacks between Israel and Iran would seem a contest devoid of any moral high ground and only a bout between two ordinary adversaries, one that nevertheless risks spinning out of control into a larger conflagration, notes Shyam G Menon.
Escalation of the conflict in West Asia between Israel and Iran has had a direct impact on the energy markets, and more broadly on the financial markets as well as the global economy.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn Rs 25,305 crore from domestic markets since September. FPIs were net sellers in the first two months of 2023, but from March to August, they purchased equities worth Rs 1.7 trillion. This selling trend has caused the National Stock Exchange Nifty Index to decline by 3.2 per cent from its September highs. FPI selling initially began in September as profit-taking but intensified due to rising US bond yields and uncertainty regarding the rate hike trajectory.
'Pakistan has found itself in a favourable position after Operation Sindoor by appreciating the mediation as claimed by Trump and recommending him for the Nobel Peace Prize.'
The ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict has disrupted India's efforts to gain from a recent fall in crude oil prices. Since Hamas' invasion of southern Israel on October 7, petroleum has become costlier by around $5 per barrel, threatening to stoke prices and impact growth. Brent crude was trading at $89.8 per barrel on October 9 (9.15 pm IST), up over 4 per cent, thwarting India's anticipation of a period of declining oil prices - after the leading global petroleum benchmark declined by around 11 per cent last week.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
'We share concerns regarding terrorism, violence and loss of civilian lives. We agree on the need for early restoration of peace and stability and facilitating humanitarian assistance'
'New Delhi is not naive about its foreign policy choices.'
